From euphoria to overturn: Bitcoin had a black semester

Bitcoin had a black semester

Despite the 45% downward correction in recent weeks, it has risen 25% in the year. And now there are conflicting opinions between those who believe that it will continue to decline and those who think that it will rise again. 

Bitcoin closed its second-worst quarter in history with a cumulative 45% crash and the semi-annual level showed worse performance since 2018. Today listed below $34.000, when in this 2021, the year of the cryptocurrencies, came to its maximum close to $65,000.

It should be noted that despite the 45% downward correction in recent weeks, it rises 25% in the year. And now there are conflicting opinions between those who believe that it will continue to decline and those who think that it will rise again.

Other cryptos such as Ethereum are not doing particularly well in this second quarter of the year either, but despite everything, this altcoin is on track to close its best first half since 2017 with a rally of approximately 185% in this first half of the year.

In the case of Dogecoin, the ‘meme’ cryptocurrency, it rose 380% in the second quarter, a figure that pales when compared to the 980% rally with which it closed the first quarter of the year. Currently, it is far from its highs recorded in early May, at 74.07 cents.

Returning to Bitcoin, what now really divides the experts is whether or not its big correction is over. Some think it can continue to fall to $12,000, while others see it above $110,000 by 2022 and others believe that 100,000 is mission impossible, at least for this year.

For strategists Barry B. Bannister and Thomas R. Carroll, from investment bank Stifel, Bitcoin will continue to fall to $12,000. They base their theory on what they call the recovery trade.

“The crash in its price has been simmering for weeks,” acknowledges Simon Peters, cryptoasset analyst at eToro.

Bitcoin Black Semester

“The moral is that all markets have ups and downs, but crypto is still a new and volatile asset class that still needs to be tested in an inflationary ecosystem,” Peters adds. “Investors should therefore avoid making decisions based solely on their price,” he advises.

What if it falls below $10,000? The odds of this happening have remained unchanged at 21%, according to the study. In addition, the most likely alternative is that the queen of cryptocurrencies put an end to 2021 above $50,000, with 52%.

“The idea of ​​investing solely and exclusively to speculate is going to lose steam, and that is a good thing,” says Barry Norris, of Argonaut Capital. Norris’s words make special sense when you consider his crypto-skeptic past (and present) backed by getting a 50% return by going short on MicroStrategy.

“Most people who refer to crypto with some even religious reverence have no idea about investing … let’s see where that gets them,” Norris cautions.

On the side of those who believe that Bitcoin will rise is the technical analyst of Bolsamanía, JM Rodríguez. “There are small details that invite optimism in bitcoin after a collapse from the annual and all-time highs ($65,520)”, despite the fact that “we do not have a return as such yet.”

“Everything suggests that bitcoin can attack at any time the important resistance it has at $41,335: June highs and last decreasing high,” he concludes.

The growth forecast of assets such as bitcoin estimates the maximum value of the cryptocurrency at $112,800 by 2022, according to a study published by StormGain, a leading international platform in cryptocurrency trading, which raises and studies the main risks for the cryptocurrency market.