He said he expects crude prices to rise to $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter of this year. He considered that the market underestimates the rebound in demand.
Goldman Sachs said it expects crude prices to rise to $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, arguing that the market has underestimated a pickup in demand even despite a possible resumption of Iranian supply.
“Thus, the case for higher oil prices remains intact given the large surge in demand driven by vaccines versus inelastic supply,” the bank said in a note dated Sunday.
Even “aggressively assuming” a restart of Iranian exports in July, Brent prices would still hit the $80 mark in the fourth quarter, he noted.
Oil prices fell last week after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the United States is ready to lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil, banking and maritime sectors.
Crude was picking up some of those losses on Monday, when a potential hurdle emerged to reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that could add more oil supplies. Indirect talks between Washington and Tehran will resume this week.
Goldman Sachs said a recovery in demand in developed markets would offset the recent impact of the coronavirus on consumption and likely a slower recovery in South Asia and Latin America.
Global demand could increase by 4.6 million barrels per day through the end of the year, with most of the gains likely in the next 3 months, he said.
“Mobility is increasing rapidly in the United States and Europe, vaccines are accelerating and blockades are being lifted, and freight transport and industrial activity are also on the rise,” the note said.
The bank also expects the Organization of the Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC) and a Russian-led alliance, a group known as OPEC +, to offset any increase in Iran’s production by halting a rise in its pumping for two months in the second half of the year. 2021.